Now that they have been taken down a peg or two, I can once again stand to read them. Which is good, otherwise I would have missed this wonderful piece of awesomeness:
Suicide at the Council of Elrond
Of course, it's better in the orginal elvish.
Friday, November 07, 2008
Wednesday, November 05, 2008
My thoughts exactly
The Cunning Realist:
Conservatism's chastened, soul-searching morning after: bombs, cancer jokes, and some typically incisive commentary on foreign affairs.The wilderness is thickly forested, and the trail maps suck...
All you who believed in WMDs, that compassionate conservatism was something other than ages old religious arguments about who's invisible friend is bigger, and called folks "socialists" who didn't want to give $700,000,000,000 in welfare to banks, I say, enjoy your time in the wilderness! Don't feel a need to hurry back, we'll take care of things while you're gone. When you decide to run someone for public office who knows that Africa isn't a country, let us know, we'll be waiting.
Conservatism's chastened, soul-searching morning after: bombs, cancer jokes, and some typically incisive commentary on foreign affairs.The wilderness is thickly forested, and the trail maps suck...
All you who believed in WMDs, that compassionate conservatism was something other than ages old religious arguments about who's invisible friend is bigger, and called folks "socialists" who didn't want to give $700,000,000,000 in welfare to banks, I say, enjoy your time in the wilderness! Don't feel a need to hurry back, we'll take care of things while you're gone. When you decide to run someone for public office who knows that Africa isn't a country, let us know, we'll be waiting.
Grace Notes
I watched Sen. McCain's consession speech last night and was highly impressed. He gave a respectful, well-intentioned and completely graceful speech marred only slightly by the booing of his crowd. And, given that Democrats have excelled at these kinds of speechs in the last 20 years, it's nice to see the republicans can summon up the needed class for this.
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Crushed!
As Ohio falls, so goes McCain. When he didn't flip Pennsylvania (thanks Becky!), he had to run the table. When Ohio fell, so did McCain. MSNBC is refusing to call Florida and North Carolina, but that's just to keep people from tuning out.
For the first time in my adult life, I got the election results I wanted. (Well... we'll see about ballot initiatives in CA in WA, but largely I got what I wanted.)
Theme's to look for in the GOP Post Mortem:
Center-Right Nation
Blame Bush
McCain wasn't mean enough.
Palin should have been allowed to be Palin
etc.
Anything except their intellectually bankrupt ideas. If your conservative friends say it's not a repudiation of their ideas, ask why they lost so many ballot initiatives, e.g. SD abortion and Colorado's attempt to outlaw contraception.
The world tomorrow will be measurably better than the world yesterday.
and I am going to go drinking!
For the first time in my adult life, I got the election results I wanted. (Well... we'll see about ballot initiatives in CA in WA, but largely I got what I wanted.)
Theme's to look for in the GOP Post Mortem:
Center-Right Nation
Blame Bush
McCain wasn't mean enough.
Palin should have been allowed to be Palin
etc.
Anything except their intellectually bankrupt ideas. If your conservative friends say it's not a repudiation of their ideas, ask why they lost so many ballot initiatives, e.g. SD abortion and Colorado's attempt to outlaw contraception.
The world tomorrow will be measurably better than the world yesterday.
and I am going to go drinking!
Monday, November 03, 2008
Call
In poker, after the last check-raise, the opponent can call, bringing an end to the games and winning or losing based on the cards. We've reached that point in the election. My final Intrade bets are in, the final attack ads are out as McCain throws the very last of his dignity at the wall hoping against hope that folks take pity and elevate him to national office.
As a long time independent, I have watched the democrats throw victory away time after time with candidates one would, at the best of times, still have to hold one's nose to vote for, Gore, Kerry, Mondale, Dukakis and Slick Willie. I voted for them (sometimes) largely because the alternative was even worse.
Obama has been different. When I saw his speech in Boston in 2004 (and btw started one of the first posting on this blog), I thought to myself, "wow, the nominated the wrong guy". Smart, articulate and, above all, reasonable. Open to non-ideological thoughts, new ideas and the idea that maybe a hip-shot isn't always the best way to go. In 2004 I assumed there was no chance at all anyone in any party would let him within a mile of the presidency.
So here we are on Election Eve 2008, and I got everything I wanted from the Dems. The campaign ran the way I would have wanted (even though I was ready to put a Clinton on the ticket for unity), with the candidates showing the maturity and leadership I would want to see (well.... Biden.... but he's funny, so it's okay), and Obama, for the most part, taking the high road.
McCain ran a good campaign as well, although he always seemed torn between his desire to do the right thing, his ambition to be president, and the needs of his base (having subsisted on an Atkins-like diet of pure red meat for the past 18 years). If McCain2000 had shown up, and not picked the odious Palin as a running mate, he could easily have taken my vote despite our disagreement on the war. He didn't, but I think he wishes he had returned to that framework instead of the one his campaign built for him. If there was a moment when I thought he lost my vote (apart from Palin) it was when the McCain campaign said, "John McCain does not speak for the McCain campaign". Really? Then who does?
As I have said many times here, if I have learned one thing in my life, it's that regrets occur when you don't try your hardest. I doubt the Obama campaign will have regrets, even if they lose tomorrow.
The bets are in, the candidates are about finished, it's time to show the cards.
As a long time independent, I have watched the democrats throw victory away time after time with candidates one would, at the best of times, still have to hold one's nose to vote for, Gore, Kerry, Mondale, Dukakis and Slick Willie. I voted for them (sometimes) largely because the alternative was even worse.
Obama has been different. When I saw his speech in Boston in 2004 (and btw started one of the first posting on this blog), I thought to myself, "wow, the nominated the wrong guy". Smart, articulate and, above all, reasonable. Open to non-ideological thoughts, new ideas and the idea that maybe a hip-shot isn't always the best way to go. In 2004 I assumed there was no chance at all anyone in any party would let him within a mile of the presidency.
So here we are on Election Eve 2008, and I got everything I wanted from the Dems. The campaign ran the way I would have wanted (even though I was ready to put a Clinton on the ticket for unity), with the candidates showing the maturity and leadership I would want to see (well.... Biden.... but he's funny, so it's okay), and Obama, for the most part, taking the high road.
McCain ran a good campaign as well, although he always seemed torn between his desire to do the right thing, his ambition to be president, and the needs of his base (having subsisted on an Atkins-like diet of pure red meat for the past 18 years). If McCain2000 had shown up, and not picked the odious Palin as a running mate, he could easily have taken my vote despite our disagreement on the war. He didn't, but I think he wishes he had returned to that framework instead of the one his campaign built for him. If there was a moment when I thought he lost my vote (apart from Palin) it was when the McCain campaign said, "John McCain does not speak for the McCain campaign". Really? Then who does?
As I have said many times here, if I have learned one thing in my life, it's that regrets occur when you don't try your hardest. I doubt the Obama campaign will have regrets, even if they lose tomorrow.
The bets are in, the candidates are about finished, it's time to show the cards.
Monday, October 27, 2008
there is no rule barring felons from serving in Congress
although, also, it is not a requirement.
The Senate's longest-serving Republican, Stevens said he had no idea he was getting freebies. He said he paid $160,000 for the project and said he believed that covered everything.
Stevens asked for an unusually speedy trial, hoping he'd be exonerated in time to return to Alaska and win re-election. He kept his campaign going and gave no indication that he had a contingency plan in case of conviction.
No one anticipated that the levies would fail....
The Senate's longest-serving Republican, Stevens said he had no idea he was getting freebies. He said he paid $160,000 for the project and said he believed that covered everything.
Stevens asked for an unusually speedy trial, hoping he'd be exonerated in time to return to Alaska and win re-election. He kept his campaign going and gave no indication that he had a contingency plan in case of conviction.
No one anticipated that the levies would fail....
Monday, October 20, 2008
Microexpressions
I've long been facinated by microexpressions, little subconcious facial and body movements which convey our actual thoughts about things, sometimes at odds with what we want to show.
With that, and no other comment, allow me to present two images from SNL where Gov. Palin takes over the stage from Tina Fey as Tina exits.
Friday, October 17, 2008
Old Person Snark
From an 82-year-old blogger:
Who can turn the world on with her smile?Who can take a nothing day and suddenly make it all seem worthwhile?
Well it’s NOT you girl…
Look. I am going to say what everyone at CNN, CBS, ABC and NBC is thinking but is afraid to say. Governor Palin is a stupid, conniving bitch. And it’s not because she is a strong woman - I like strong women… worship them… It’s actually the opposite. She is a weak, pathetic woman who thinks big hair, winking, baby talk and self deprecation is somehow becoming of a woman who wants to lead the free world. My god, where is Margaret Thatcher when you need her!
Who can turn the world on with her smile?Who can take a nothing day and suddenly make it all seem worthwhile?
Well it’s NOT you girl…
Look. I am going to say what everyone at CNN, CBS, ABC and NBC is thinking but is afraid to say. Governor Palin is a stupid, conniving bitch. And it’s not because she is a strong woman - I like strong women… worship them… It’s actually the opposite. She is a weak, pathetic woman who thinks big hair, winking, baby talk and self deprecation is somehow becoming of a woman who wants to lead the free world. My god, where is Margaret Thatcher when you need her!
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Lest You Get too Cocky
Remember, they called it for Carter in 1980 until the final few weeks, then it bacame too close to call.
At the heart of the controversy is the fact that no published survey detected the Reagan landslide before it actually happened. Three weeks before the election, for example, TIME'S polling firm, Yankelovich, Skelly and White, produced a survey of 1,632 registered voters showing the race almost dead even, as did a private survey by Caddell. Two weeks later, a survey by CBS News and the New York Times showed about the same situation.
Some pollsters at that time, however, were getting results that showed a slight Reagan lead. ABC News-Harris surveys, for example, consistently gave Reagan a lead of a few points until the climactic last week of October.
At the heart of the controversy is the fact that no published survey detected the Reagan landslide before it actually happened. Three weeks before the election, for example, TIME'S polling firm, Yankelovich, Skelly and White, produced a survey of 1,632 registered voters showing the race almost dead even, as did a private survey by Caddell. Two weeks later, a survey by CBS News and the New York Times showed about the same situation.
Some pollsters at that time, however, were getting results that showed a slight Reagan lead. ABC News-Harris surveys, for example, consistently gave Reagan a lead of a few points until the climactic last week of October.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Monday, October 13, 2008
Crisis Poetry
From work today:
Stevan’s latest haiku:
Bond is debt,
And debt is not money,
Jump you fuckers.
Stevan’s latest haiku:
Bond is debt,
And debt is not money,
Jump you fuckers.
No Good News for McCain
William Kristol, a week after advising the McCain campaign to go negative on Bill Ayers/Jeremiah Wright, is now telling him to fire his staff and "reboot" his campaign.
This seems to be the McCain Theme of the Week (tm), probably propelled by the video of McCin being disgusted with the woman calling Obama an arab. To his credit, I did think better of McCain for doing that and also, to his credit, I think he genuinely doesn't like what we wrought there and tried to do some damage control. It as an honest moment from him that gave him a shred of dignity in my book. It won't make me vote for him, but it does improve his damaged reputation a bit.
What's been interesting is reading the comments on the Kristol column. All the ones I read, the first 4 or 5 pages, reflect the same sentiment from Democrats and Republicans alike; it's too little, too late.
The modern presidential campaign uses columns like this to test trial balloons, i.e. a staff hack writes them (in this case New York Times Opinion columnist William Kristol who is famous for being ... well I don't know), then the campaign tries to sift out whether or not the idea has merit. Will the idea resonate with swing voters, will it piss off the base, will it make the opponents react badly etc. What surprised me in these comments was the over all consistency of the reaction, that it would be yet another gimmick and a campaign that should have been talking substance weeks ago. That, and the universal acknowledgement that any reboot starts with dumping Palin (which they absolutely cannot d0).
With 3 weeks to go, anythign can still happen. 538 points out today that Reagan was behind Carter by more than this at this point in the election cycle, and his October Surprise with the Iranian hostages spun it around at the last moment. Could Bush pull OBL out of his cave at the last moment? Maybe. I'm not certain it would help, since it might just have the reaction of removing any remain support for the war (whew! We got him! Okay, that's over), but it could conceiveably boost the Republicans. And who knows what else the next three weeks could bring. No one should be counting chickens or making nominations for Secretary of State yet.
I'm not sure how the McCain folks will react to Kristol's advice, but it should be interesting to watch.
This seems to be the McCain Theme of the Week (tm), probably propelled by the video of McCin being disgusted with the woman calling Obama an arab. To his credit, I did think better of McCain for doing that and also, to his credit, I think he genuinely doesn't like what we wrought there and tried to do some damage control. It as an honest moment from him that gave him a shred of dignity in my book. It won't make me vote for him, but it does improve his damaged reputation a bit.
What's been interesting is reading the comments on the Kristol column. All the ones I read, the first 4 or 5 pages, reflect the same sentiment from Democrats and Republicans alike; it's too little, too late.
The modern presidential campaign uses columns like this to test trial balloons, i.e. a staff hack writes them (in this case New York Times Opinion columnist William Kristol who is famous for being ... well I don't know), then the campaign tries to sift out whether or not the idea has merit. Will the idea resonate with swing voters, will it piss off the base, will it make the opponents react badly etc. What surprised me in these comments was the over all consistency of the reaction, that it would be yet another gimmick and a campaign that should have been talking substance weeks ago. That, and the universal acknowledgement that any reboot starts with dumping Palin (which they absolutely cannot d0).
With 3 weeks to go, anythign can still happen. 538 points out today that Reagan was behind Carter by more than this at this point in the election cycle, and his October Surprise with the Iranian hostages spun it around at the last moment. Could Bush pull OBL out of his cave at the last moment? Maybe. I'm not certain it would help, since it might just have the reaction of removing any remain support for the war (whew! We got him! Okay, that's over), but it could conceiveably boost the Republicans. And who knows what else the next three weeks could bring. No one should be counting chickens or making nominations for Secretary of State yet.
I'm not sure how the McCain folks will react to Kristol's advice, but it should be interesting to watch.
Sunday, October 12, 2008
Some New Art
I put together a couple of Art Deco lamps this weekend, one of the better ones is on display here. I'm trying to work on a couple of Stll Life pieces, and although I am very, very happy with the Fairy Lamp, the rest of the piece isn't coming together.
The other piece, Lightbringer, should be available later this week or this next weekend.
The other piece, Lightbringer, should be available later this week or this next weekend.
Friday, October 10, 2008
I'm in Love!!!!
with 538. I've been curious about how they are managing to agree with Intrade on their Electoral College map, and spent some time readthing through their methodology. It's very impressive and about as good as you can get with objective math. There are a lot of factors in figuring out things like the average error rate of pollsters (by state) and it seemed liek that would be a pretty subjective number. Nope.
My process is to look at the average miss for each pollster across each contest they polled, and compare it to the average miss of other pollsters in those same contest, after going through a more-complicated-than-it-needs-to-be iterative process.The results are below, split into groups for 'regional' and 'national' pollsters. (This distinction is arbitrary -- some pollsters like Insider Advantage and Quinnipiac straddle the line between being regional and national -- but helpful for presentation). 'Error' represents the average error for the particular pollster, as compared to the 'IAE', which is the iterated average error for other pollsters in those same contests.
It's pretty good. I'd like to say that it's what I'd do if I had the time and motivation, but that would be a lie. It's much better than what I could have done. While sites like Intrade and 538 aren't actually predictive (they give you a very clear picture of what the chances are at a particular moment, but that's very different than telling you what's actually going to happen), I really like the way 538 has tried to use objective math everywhere.
Well done!
My process is to look at the average miss for each pollster across each contest they polled, and compare it to the average miss of other pollsters in those same contest, after going through a more-complicated-than-it-needs-to-be iterative process.The results are below, split into groups for 'regional' and 'national' pollsters. (This distinction is arbitrary -- some pollsters like Insider Advantage and Quinnipiac straddle the line between being regional and national -- but helpful for presentation). 'Error' represents the average error for the particular pollster, as compared to the 'IAE', which is the iterated average error for other pollsters in those same contests.
It's pretty good. I'd like to say that it's what I'd do if I had the time and motivation, but that would be a lie. It's much better than what I could have done. While sites like Intrade and 538 aren't actually predictive (they give you a very clear picture of what the chances are at a particular moment, but that's very different than telling you what's actually going to happen), I really like the way 538 has tried to use objective math everywhere.
Well done!
Thursday, October 09, 2008
Something Is Wrong with the Universe
I find myself agreeing with George Will. George Will for Christ's sake!
I have voted for too many losing candidates over the years to think this is over (Dukakis anyone?), but when George Will is agreeable, something is not right.
Cats and dogs living together!
George is my runner up for Most Wrong Pundit (WMDs will justify the Iraq War), with the clear winner being William Kristol. Kristol is always, deeply wrong about almost everything, not because he isn't smart (he is), but he's a complete partisan and uses his intellect in the cheap and tawdry exercise of rationalizing whatever the talking points of the day. The irony is, he knows that's what he's doing, is a little ashamed of it, but the checks cash.
I have voted for too many losing candidates over the years to think this is over (Dukakis anyone?), but when George Will is agreeable, something is not right.
Cats and dogs living together!
George is my runner up for Most Wrong Pundit (WMDs will justify the Iraq War), with the clear winner being William Kristol. Kristol is always, deeply wrong about almost everything, not because he isn't smart (he is), but he's a complete partisan and uses his intellect in the cheap and tawdry exercise of rationalizing whatever the talking points of the day. The irony is, he knows that's what he's doing, is a little ashamed of it, but the checks cash.
Tuesday, October 07, 2008
Saturday, October 04, 2008
Just Wanting it More
I was in London during the post-election/recount period in 2000, having flown over the day after the election to do some fundraising for CertCo. I got to watch the entire disaster unfold from overseas, which made for some interesting coverage and gave me a view I might not otherwise have had. One difference between the Gore and Bush camps became very clear to me, seeing them from such a distance: The Bush camp simply wanted it more. It had never occur ed to the Bushies that they had lost, they immediately (and irritatingly) started getting their post-election appointments in line and were bugging the White House for the keys within a day or two, long before the Supreme Court gave it to him. Go back and look at the news then, or read some of the biographies of the Clintonistas an you'll get the impression the Bushies where there. Gore, in contrast, fretted and worried, didn't move for fear of looking too bold and was, in a word, too damn polite about the whole thing.
When I read this article today from 538, I got exactly the same impression, i.e. the Obama camp simply wants it more. The McCain camp seems to think they "deserve" it, or have "earned" it or, in some cases are "entitled" to it, but the Obama camp is working it. Hard.
You could take every McCain volunteer we’ve seen doing actual work in the entire trip, over six states, and it would add up to the same as Obama’s single Thornton, CO office. Or his single Durango, CO office. These ground campaigns bear no relationship to each other.
Regrets come when you fail and realize, "I could have done a lot more". If the Obama camp loses, I doubt that's what they'll be saying.
Flipping this over, I'm actually quite frightened by the idea that Camp McCain is doing as well as they are doing simply by flogging McCain's service record and by not being Barak Obama.
When I read this article today from 538, I got exactly the same impression, i.e. the Obama camp simply wants it more. The McCain camp seems to think they "deserve" it, or have "earned" it or, in some cases are "entitled" to it, but the Obama camp is working it. Hard.
You could take every McCain volunteer we’ve seen doing actual work in the entire trip, over six states, and it would add up to the same as Obama’s single Thornton, CO office. Or his single Durango, CO office. These ground campaigns bear no relationship to each other.
Regrets come when you fail and realize, "I could have done a lot more". If the Obama camp loses, I doubt that's what they'll be saying.
Flipping this over, I'm actually quite frightened by the idea that Camp McCain is doing as well as they are doing simply by flogging McCain's service record and by not being Barak Obama.
Friday, October 03, 2008
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