Saturday, October 04, 2008

Just Wanting it More

I was in London during the post-election/recount period in 2000, having flown over the day after the election to do some fundraising for CertCo. I got to watch the entire disaster unfold from overseas, which made for some interesting coverage and gave me a view I might not otherwise have had. One difference between the Gore and Bush camps became very clear to me, seeing them from such a distance: The Bush camp simply wanted it more. It had never occur ed to the Bushies that they had lost, they immediately (and irritatingly) started getting their post-election appointments in line and were bugging the White House for the keys within a day or two, long before the Supreme Court gave it to him. Go back and look at the news then, or read some of the biographies of the Clintonistas an you'll get the impression the Bushies where there. Gore, in contrast, fretted and worried, didn't move for fear of looking too bold and was, in a word, too damn polite about the whole thing.

When I read this article today from 538, I got exactly the same impression, i.e. the Obama camp simply wants it more. The McCain camp seems to think they "deserve" it, or have "earned" it or, in some cases are "entitled" to it, but the Obama camp is working it. Hard.

You could take every McCain volunteer we’ve seen doing actual work in the entire trip, over six states, and it would add up to the same as Obama’s single Thornton, CO office. Or his single Durango, CO office. These ground campaigns bear no relationship to each other.

Regrets come when you fail and realize, "I could have done a lot more". If the Obama camp loses, I doubt that's what they'll be saying.

Flipping this over, I'm actually quite frightened by the idea that Camp McCain is doing as well as they are doing simply by flogging McCain's service record and by not being Barak Obama.

Friday, October 03, 2008

China's Men in Space

China Launches First Willing Manned Mission Into Space


It's interesting that 538 and Intrade show, to within a fairly small variance, similar numbers for the presidential race, at least in terms of electoral college. I used to be told that Intrade was a "predictor" of elections and was "never wrong", but that's easily dismissable. I think it is, however, a pretty good measure of the market at any particular moment, like an instant poll.

BTW, the light blogging has been a result of a big, big push at work this week.