Currrently tradesports has the election handicapped as a 80-85% chance of a Dem house and a 30% chance of a Dem Senate. So, assuming these probabilities are independent (they are not) and that the Central Limit Theroem holds, (it definately does not), the odds of a Dem Congress are .8*.3 = .24 or about 4 to 1 against. The odds for a GOP Congress is .2*.7 = .14 or about 7 to 1 against. That leaves a 62% (.56 for Dem house, GOP Den, .06 for GOP House, Dem Senate)chance of a split congress.
I can live with that.
Unfortuantely all the assumptions of independence are wrong.
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