Wednesday, November 08, 2006

Tradesports Election

So I missed several opportunities last night to make some money on the GOP Senate control options. It swung wildly between 50-70% in favor of GOP control during the evening, and was at 86% when I went to bed. This morning, it's at 15%. This is based on the outstanding races in VA and MT, both of which are very close. VA I'm predicting will go for the Dems based on the uncounted absentee ballots which were tending strongly Dem. MT, no prediction.

Many opps to short the GOP last night, but alas, I let them slide.

BTW, the Diebold people were a little worried yesterday. I think today they are going to be more so. In VA and MT it's going to go to a recount, both of which in the past have worked to GOP advantage. In their paperless machines, "recount" just means re-checking the totals. I suspect if the GOP starts losing recounts, we are going to see bipartisan calls for the re-tooling of the Diebold machines.

It was an interesting night

Tuesday, November 07, 2006

Odds

Currrently tradesports has the election handicapped as a 80-85% chance of a Dem house and a 30% chance of a Dem Senate. So, assuming these probabilities are independent (they are not) and that the Central Limit Theroem holds, (it definately does not), the odds of a Dem Congress are .8*.3 = .24 or about 4 to 1 against. The odds for a GOP Congress is .2*.7 = .14 or about 7 to 1 against. That leaves a 62% (.56 for Dem house, GOP Den, .06 for GOP House, Dem Senate)chance of a split congress.

I can live with that.

Unfortuantely all the assumptions of independence are wrong.

Saturday, November 04, 2006

Diebold

Looks like I will be spending Election Day with the Diebold security team. Should be very, very interesting. Details Wednesday.

Wired

I've been on he road all week and had exhausted the two books I brought with me, The Laides of Grace Adieu and Fragile Things. With 3 hours of plane travel ahead of me, I picked up a bunhc of magazines including the seldom read(by me) Wired. Not too shabby actually. I bought it for the article on atheism, but was delighed by the following: 6 word stories

The online article has a bunch of versions which didn't get printed, but the print version has them presented in some very interesting artisitic styles. Overall, I think the print version wins.

Monday, October 30, 2006

Worst Websites... Ever!

We get suchs gems as:
An endoresement from a dog
ALL CAPS TEXT
A nice picture of a pig's nose (I think)
bareass HTML
and a recipe for "Easy, Killer Margaritas"

My Space? no. AOL? Perish the thought. Craig's list? they wish they were this sophisticated. No, these are people running for office!

Thursday, October 26, 2006

Michael J Fox Ad

I've always had a secret affinity for Michael. We're about the same age, approximately the same build and he's always played characters I could relate to. I was more than a little surprised and saddened when I found he's got Parkinson's, then a few years later was more than surprised when it became a possible diagnosis for me.

He's running an ad in Missouri on an issue he backs, stem cell research, to which I say, "good for him". The question in the media is, was he off his meds when he did it?



The answer is: absolutely not. This is what you look like when the treatment for Parkinson's is successful. When it's not, you look much, much worse. Depending on how far down the path he is, he might not be able to move or speak at all if he were off his meds.

Take a good look, this is the difference between a treatment and a cure. Just like diabetes, just like Alzheimer’s, just like MS (but unlike ALS where there isn't even a treatment), it's a long term, disabling disease, and the treatments are quite crude.

Will stem cells cure him? No. Will they help? No. Do we know that they will ever work? No. Stem cells might be a dead end, like so many other kinds of scientific research. Still, it's the best we have at the moment.

Do I think he should have made the commercial? Sure, why not? It's a cause he believes in, presented in an honest way. Let the marketplace decide.

And, btw, I think the whole "meds" question is a red herring. The presumption is that if he were "on meds" he'd look just fine and that if he were off he'd be somehow "faking". This is the Fallacy of False Choice. Off meds he looks bad, on meds he looks bad differently, either way there is no deception here, just his choice of how to appear.

E.T., Where are You?

There is an interesting debate over at PZ Myers site on the development of extraterrestrial intelligence. It's quite illuminating in a lot of ways, but I was struck by this insight:

What Percentage of Planets on Which Life Has Originated Will Produce Intelligent Life?

Physicists, on the whole, will give a different answer to this question than biologists. Physicists still tend to think more deterministically than biologists. They tend to say, if life has originated somewhere, it will also develop intelligence in due time. The biologist, on the other hand, is impressed by the improbability of such a development.


Personally, I remain optimistic about the chances of advanced extraterrestrial civilizations, especially in light of progress in the last century on gravity. I would like to believe (but cannot objectively prove) that we're only a few decades away from a theory of inertial mass. Should such a formalism arise, we'd be well placed to build vehicles capable of interstellar flight.

However, this is an article of faith, not one of reason. The full critique is interesting and, although I can pick apart some of it, I reach a similar conclusion when I rebuild the argument with my corrections: i.e. intelligent, space-faring civilizations may not overlap in terms of space and time. The galaxy may only hold one or two at a time, separated by vast stretches of astronomical time. A million years is nothing in terms of astronomy, yet I can't imagine what future, if any, the human race has in that timeframe.

They may be out there, and they may be far more advanced than us, but if so, I can’t imagine them wanting to talk.

Wednesday, October 25, 2006

Chuck Norris isn't as dumb as a Brick, He's as Dumb as ALL the Bricks in Boston!

Appearently, Chuck doesn't get it:


"While I have as much fun as anyone else reading and quoting them, let’s face it, most “Chuck Norris Facts” describe someone with supernatural, superhuman powers. They’re describing a superman character. And in the history of this planet, there has only been one real Superman. It’s not me."

Sadly, he’s not talking about Superman. Though I suppose he could be, since the rest of this article is how he believes in magic because he saw it in a book somewhere. Just not a comic book. Though it might have had illustrations.

Chuck Norris Facts

(via)

Monday, October 23, 2006

Sunday, October 22, 2006

Grammar Humor

As longtime readers know, I have a soft spot for grammar humor. This made me laugh.

A Lower Limit, to be Sure


HowManyOfMe.com
LogoThere are:
54
people with my name
in the U.S.A.

How many have your name?

Saturday, October 21, 2006

Antimatter Driven Sail for Deep Space Missions

NIAC was one of the projects I worked on in grad school in my Advanced Planetary Sciences class. My proposal was a combination of 3-body gravity assits (i.e. slingshot effects) and solar sails. It got you to the outer solar system in about 3 years and to the ISM in about 15.

This idea though, seems exceedingly clever and takes the solar sail idea up a notch. The basic idea is to build a sail embedded with fissile uranium, build an antimatter source and then throw antiprotons at the sail to cause the uranium to undergo fission. Total amount of antimatter needed to reach the ISM? 30 milligrams. (that seems small, but truthfully it's an enormous amount. 30 milligrams is ~ 2x10^21 antiprotons, and a typical accelerator will produce 10^5 or so per reaction).

The primary question relative to the performance of this concept is the momentum delivered to the sail by the fission of the uranium. If just the two fission products are released then the momentum is determined by the velocity and mass of one of the products. The antimatter induced fission of uranium produces a spectrum of masses. The width of this distribution, however, is relatively narrow and can be approximated by using palladium-111 as the average fission product. The energy released in the fission is taken to be 190 MeV. Thus, the velocity of the fission product is 1.39x10^7 m/s and the mass is 1.85x10^-25 kg/atom. The velocity would equate to a specific impulse of 1.4 million seconds.

It's actually more complicated than that, and the proposal goes into much more detail. I have some questions though about the secondary particle decay chains.

It's an interesting concept.

Friday, October 20, 2006

Candidate seeks textbooks as shields

wow

OKLAHOMA CITY --A candidate for state superintendent of schools said Thursday he wants thick used textbooks placed under every student's desk so they can use them for self-defense during school shootings.

"People might think it's kind of weird, crazy," said Republican Bill Crozier of Union City, a teacher and former Air Force security officer. "It is a practical thing; it's something you can do. It might be a way to deflect those bullets until police go there."

Crozier and a group of aides produced a 10-minute video Tuesday in which they shoot math, language and telephone books with a variety of weapons, including an AK-47 assault rifle and a 9mm pistol. The rifle bullet penetrated two books, including a calculus textbook, but the pistol bullet was stopped by a single book.

---

Crozier's experiment began with shots fired at a calculus textbook from an AK-47 Russian-style assault rifle. The shot penetrated two textbooks at once.
"We need to look at protection of young people that sometimes people may think you are a little smarter than everybody else or a higher IQ or whatever. They need to look at what the end result would be," Crozier said.



My suggestion: Give the candidate a calculus book, give his opponent a gun, and test this! Seems only scientific!

Video of Republicans shooting science books here

I have a better idea, lets give them bibles for this instead.

Thursday, October 19, 2006

She can Eat Nails and Shit Lightning

Well, actually, it's half true....

MONDAY, OCTOBER 9 This week of emasculating pastels, incriminating tattoos, and glorious and surprising triumph kicks off today with a blast of lightning from a Croatian lady's anus. Details come from the Associated Press, which reports 27-year-old Natasha Timarovic had just finished brushing her teeth in the bathroom of her home in the Croatian city of Zadar when lightning struck. "I had just put my mouth under the tap to rinse away the toothpaste when the lightning must have struck the building," said Timarovic to the Zadar news channel 24 Sata. "I don't remember much after that, but I was later told that the lightning had traveled down the water pipe and struck me on the mouth, passing through my body. It was incredibly painful. I felt it pass through my torso and then I don't remember much at all." What Timarovic can't recall, an emergency worker supplies: "She was wearing rubber bathroom shoes at the time and so instead of earthing through her feet it appears the electricity shot out of her backside," said the unnamed medic to 24 Sata. "It appears to have earthed through the damp shower curtain that she was touching as she bent over to put her mouth under the tap." Despite suffering great pain and severe burning to her anus, Ms. Timarovic remains a lucky woman. "If she had not been wearing the shoes she would probably have been killed by the blast."

Tuesday, October 17, 2006

Second Life News

Reuters has dispatched a full time reporter into Second Life to... well.... report I guess.

Mr. Pasick, a Reuters technology reporter who was formerly earthbound with the news agency, is heading up Reuters’ first virtual news bureau inside the online role-playing game Second Life. While many independent journalists and bloggers have published inside such virtual worlds, Reuters is the first established news agency to dispatch a full-time reporter to do so.

“This is a very serious, old brand that stands for things and has principles, but that doesn’t take itself so seriously that it wouldn’t play in a gaming space,” Mr. Glocer said. “This appeals to a younger demographic. Even for people who don’t go in and play in Second Life, it shows Reuters has a certain with-it-ness.”

I've tinkered around in Second Life and, frankly, found it wanting. The interface would have been considered sub-par in the 90's, movement, object creation and interaction are all surprisingly difficult and, there is very little to do, apart from struggle with the application.

I passed on playing for any length of time, give me City of Heroes or even WoW anyday. I'm guessing the half-life of the Reuters reporter is about 3 months.

Coffee Spitting Quote

I need to time my coffee drinking better or I need waterproof monitors. I ran across this quote today, which I found very funny:

Dumbest Congresscritters countdown Radar profiles the ten dumbest nose-pickers in Congress, awarding top prize to Katherine Harris, a Republican from Florida:
If dumb Congress members were the X-Men, Harris would be their Wolverine

Unique Image of Saturn



















Awesome image of Saturn, in the infrared, from the Cassini probe.

Buddy Jesus Serves in Iraq



I would never have thought of this, but it's a complex, highly interactive world.

As a result, his visage -- with a "ceramicized" or cartoon-like countenance -- earned an afterlife as a sticker, t-shirt, poster and dashboard figure. Not content with that action, however, Buddy acquired a recent feature role in an all-too-real drama starring the Mahdi of Sadr City and the U.S. military.
Carolyn O'Hara of the FP
blog is not sure how the whole thing got started. One possibility is that the Iraqi's inserted Buddy into a forged U.S. pamphlet outlining potential abominations to be inflicted on the local militias. The other possibility is that U.S. soldiers had been circulating Buddy as a joke, or even an article of incitement. Either way, Buddy made the rounds, with the terrible result that the locals mistook him for one of their holy own.
As you can tell from the image, the mistake -- once discovered -- was not appreciated.

Link

Monday, October 16, 2006

Key to the Extraterrestrial Messages

From Bruce Schnier's Cryptogram. I've done some contract work for the NSA as part of what we were working on at CertCo, but I never got access to Crypto Quarterly.

Indexes to NSA Publications Declassified and Online



In May 2003, Michael Ravnitzky submitted a Freedom of Information Act
(FOIA) request to the National Security Agency for a copy of the index
to their historical reports at the Center for Cryptologic History and
the index to certain journals: the NSA Technical Journal and the
Cryptographic Quarterly. These journals had been mentioned in the
literature but are not available to the public. Because he thought NSA
might be reluctant to release the bibliographic indexes, he also asked
for the table of contents to each issue.

The request took more than three years for them to process and
declassify -- sadly, not atypical -- and during the process they asked
if he would accept the indexes in lieu of the tables of contents pages:
specifically, the cumulative indices that included all the previous
material in the earlier indices. He agreed, and got them last month.
The results are online.

This is just a sampling of some of the article titles from the NSA
Technical Journal: "The Arithmetic of a Generation Principle for an
Electronic Key Generator" - "CATNIP: Computer Analysis - Target Networks
Intercept Probability" - "Chatter Patterns: A Last Resort" - "COMINT
Satellites - A Space Problem" - "Computers and Advanced Weapons Systems"
- "Coupon Collecting and Cryptology" - "Cranks, Nuts, and Screwballs" -
"A Cryptologic Fairy Tale" - "Don't Be Too Smart" - "Earliest
Applications of the Computer at NSA" - "Emergency Destruction of
Documents" - "Extraterrestrial Intelligence" - "The Fallacy of the
One-Time-Pad Excuse" - "GEE WHIZZER" - "The Gweeks Had a Gwoup for It" -
"How to Visualize a Matrix" - "Key to the Extraterrestrial Messages" -
"A Mechanical Treatment of Fibonacci Sequences" - "Q.E.D.- 2 Hours, 41
Minutes" - "SlGINT Implications of Military Oceanography" - "Some
Problems and Techniques in Bookbreaking" - "Upgrading Selected US Codes
and Ciphers with a Cover and Deception Capability" - "Weather: Its Role
in Communications Intelligence" - "Worldwide Language Problems at NSA"

In the materials the NSA provided, they also included indices to two
other publications: Cryptologic Spectrum and Cryptologic Almanac.

The indices to Cryptologic Quarterly and NSA Technical Journal have
indices by title, author, and keyword. The index to Cryptologic Spectrum
has indices by author, title, and issue.

Consider these bibliographic tools as stepping stones. If you want an
article, send a FOIA request for it. Send a FOIA request for a dozen.
There's a lot of stuff here that would help elucidate the early history
of the agency and some interesting cryptographic topics.

Thanks, Mike, for doing this work.

http://www.thememoryhole.org/nsa/bibs.htm

In reality, I suspect the NSA salted the list. It's what I would have done in their position.


FTR: I shot my resume over to them. You know, just in case...

Sunday, October 15, 2006

Super Snark

Kieth Olbermann is fast becoming my favorite commentator on current events.



I sometimes dispare that I am one of the few Americans who remembers what the constitution says.